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Guesscale

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Three hard-to-know numbers a day to estimate, scored by how many times too high or too low you are.

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on guesscale.com

Guesscale's Fermi Game on 20 October 2026, question 1 of 3: how many breaths a resting adult takes in 24 hours, with the estimate box and Lock in my guess button

Guesscale is a daily Fermi estimation game. Each day you get three questions about quantities nobody knows offhand, type a number for each, and see how far off you were on a logarithmic scale.

About Guesscale

Guesscale turns Fermi estimation into a daily game. Every day it serves three questions, such as how many breaths a resting adult takes in a day, picked by date from a rotation of 40 questions on everyday life, science, geography, technology and business, so everyone gets the same three. The rotation started on 16 September 2026, and with three questions a day a question comes back after about two weeks.

The idea, named after the physicist Enrico Fermi, is to reach a sensible answer by breaking a question into a few rough factors and multiplying them out, instead of recalling a fact. The game gives you a notes box for that working and a number field for your final guess.

Scoring is about scale rather than precision. Being twice too high counts the same as being half as much, and feedback runs from Bullseye scale and Excellent calibration down to Right order of magnitude and Way off scale. Each answer earns up to 1,000 points, shown on a log scale with your guess beside the reference answer. Your errors are saved in your browser to build a Scale Profile that shows whether you tend to guess high or low, and finishing the three keeps a daily streak and gives a result to share on X.

There is also an unlimited practice mode and a set of worked example questions. It suits people who like numbers, science and back-of-the-envelope reasoning.

How to play Guesscale

  1. Open Guesscale to get today's three questions.
  2. Break the question into a few quantities you can estimate, using the notes box if you like.
  3. Multiply them out and type your final number.
  4. Submit to see the reference answer and how many times off you were.
  5. Repeat for all three questions, then see your total out of 3,000, your streak and your Scale Profile.

Screenshots

Guesscale's daily Fermi question on a phone: the breaths-per-day question with the estimate box below it
Guesscale's Fermi Game, question 1 of 3: About how many hairs are on a typical human scalp?, with an estimate box in hairs and a Lock in my guess button

Tips

  • Aim for the right order of magnitude first; a factor of two is already a good result.
  • Write down each assumption so you can see which one was off when the answer appears.
  • Watch your Scale Profile: if you keep guessing high, nudge future guesses down.

Questions

Is it the same for everyone?

Yes. The three daily questions are chosen from a fixed rotation by date, so every player gets the same set that day.

How is it scored?

By multiplicative distance: guessing 50 or 200 when the answer is 100 counts as equally far off.

Can I play more than three?

Yes, there is an unlimited practice mode with more Fermi questions.

Do I need an account?

No. Your results are stored in your browser.

Do the questions repeat?

Yes. The daily set is drawn from a rotation of 40 questions, three a day, so a question comes back after about two weeks.

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